A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
